25 October 2011

When Stock Market Reaches its Bottom - Based on Global semiconductor industry association Sales Reports

Unpredictable Market Trend- Based on FBMKLCI, the bull started from 2003 May to 2004 Mar, then continued adjustment for around 2.5 years. The strong bull continues climbing the mountain from Jun 2006 to the peak at Dec 2007 (around 1.5 years). After that, the bear came immediately started from Jan 2008 to Oct 2008 (around 10 months), then a baby bull was reborned and grow slowly for Nov 2008 to March 2009 (around 5 months). When the baby bull was strong enough, it started to climb the mountain from April 2009 to Jun 2011 (around 2.2 years). So, what will happen next? What can we refer to?

Based on Global semiconductor industry association Sales Reports, when all the negative news were reported (December 2008 to April 2009) only during the FBMKLCI market reached its bottom (Nov 2008 to March 2009). However, this is the hardest period for all investors when all negative and bad news continue bomb-blasting the mind of investors to make bad decision (selling their shares in the bottom of the market).

Highlight of Global semiconductor industry association Sales Reports:
February Chip Sales Declined Year on Year, Month on Month
Published Friday, April 3, 2009
January Chip Sales Declined Year on Year, Month on Month
Published Sunday, March 1, 2009
Global Semiconductor Sales Fell by 2.8 Percent in 2008
Published Monday, February 2, 2009
Semiconductor Sales Slow in November
Published Friday, January 2, 2009
October Semiconductor Sales Decline 2.4 Percent Year-on-Year
Published Monday, December 1, 2008


Global semiconductor industry association Sales Reports:
Global Sales Reports 2011

Global Semiconductor Sales Holding Steady in July 2011
Published Friday, September 2, 2011

Global Semiconductor Sales Grow 3.7% in First Half of 2011
Published Monday, August 1, 2011

Steady and Modest Growth Mark May 2011 Sales for Semiconductor Industry
Published Tuesday, July 5, 2011

Semiconductor Year-over-Year Sales Growth Encouraging
Published Tuesday, May 31, 2011

Semiconductor Industry Ends 1st Quarter with Strong Global Sales
Published Monday, May 2, 2011

SIA Reports February Global Chip Sales of $25.2 Billion
Published Monday, April 4, 2011


Semiconductor Industry Reports January Chip Sales Grew; 14.0% Year over Year
Published Monday, March 7, 2011


Global Semiconductor Sales Hit Record $298.3 Billion in 2010
Published Monday, January 31, 2011

SIA Reports November Chip Sales
Published Monday, January 3, 2011
Global Sales Reports 2010

Global Semiconductor Sales Flat Month-on-Month
Published Friday, December 3, 2010


Global Semiconductor Sales Rise 6.1% Quarter-on-Quarter
Published Monday, November 1, 2010


Global Chip Sales Increase 1.8 Percent Month-on-Month
Published Monday, October 4, 2010


July Semiconductor Sales Up 37 Percent Year-on-Year
Published Monday, August 30, 2010


Global Semiconductor Sales Rise 7.1 Percent Quarter-on-Quarter
Published Monday, August 2, 2010

SIA Reports Globals Chip Sales In My Rose By 4.5 Percent Month-on-Month
Published Tuesday, July 6, 2010

SIA Reports April Chip Sales Grew By 2.2. Percent Month-On-Month
Published Tuesday, June 1, 2010

SIA Reports March Chip Sales Grew By 4.6 Percent Month-on-Month
Published Monday, May 3, 2010


SIA Reports February Chip Sales
Published Monday, April 5, 2010


January Chip Sales Increase 0.3 Percent From December
Published Monday, March 1, 2010


Global Chip Sales Decline In 2009
Published Monday, February 1, 2010


SIA Reports November Chip Sales
Published Monday, January 4, 2010
Global Sales Reports 2009

SIA Reports October Chips Sales
Published Monday, November 30, 2009

Third Quarter Chip Sales Reflect Improving Market Conditions
Published Monday, November 2, 2009

Global Chip Sales Increase 5 Percent Month-on-Month
Published Friday, October 2, 2009

Global Chip Sales Increase 5.3 Percent Month-on-Month
Published Monday, August 31, 2009

Global Semiconductor Sales Rise 17 Percent Quarter-on-Quarter
Published Monday, August 3, 2009

May Semiconductor Sales Increase 5.4 percent Month on Month
Published Friday, July 3, 2009

April Semiconductor Sales Increase Month on Month
Published Monday, June 1, 2009

March Chip Sales Rebound Slightly from February
Published Friday, May 1, 2009

February Chip Sales Declined Year on Year, Month on Month
Published Friday, April 3, 2009

January Chip Sales Declined Year on Year, Month on Month
Published Sunday, March 1, 2009
Global Sales Reports 2008


Global Semiconductor Sales Fell by 2.8 Percent in 2008
Published Monday, February 2, 2009

Semiconductor Sales Slow in November
Published Friday, January 2, 2009

October Semiconductor Sales Decline 2.4 Percent Year-on-Year
Published Monday, December 1, 2008

September Semiconductor Sales Up 1.6 Percent Year-on Year
Published Thursday, October 30, 2008

August Semiconductor Sales Up 5.5 Percent Year-on-Year
Published Thursday, October 2, 2008

July Chip Sales up 7.6 Percent Year-on-Year
Published Tuesday, September 2, 2008

Worldwide Chip Sales Up 5.4 Percent in First Half of 2008
Published Monday, August 4, 2008

Worldwide Chip Sales Up 7.5 Percent in May
Published Monday, June 30, 2008

April Semiconductor Sales Up 6 Percent Year-on-Year
Published Monday, June 2, 2008

First-Quarter Semiconductor Sales Show 3.8 Percent Year-on-Year Gain
Published Thursday, May 1, 2008

February Semiconductor Sales Show Modest Year-on-Year Gain
Published Monday, March 31, 2008

January Semiconductor Sales Essentially Flat with 2007
Published Monday, March 3, 2008
Global Sales Reports 2007
Global Chip Sales Hit $255.6 Billion in 2007
Published Friday, February 1, 2008

November Chip Sales Up 2.3 Percent Year-on-Year
Published Sunday, December 30, 2007

October Chip Sales Rose 5 Percent Year-on-Year
Published Monday, December 3, 2007

Worldwide Chip Sales Grew by 2.1 Percent in First Half of 2007
Published Friday, August 3, 2007

Worldwide Chip Sales in May Grew by 2.4 Percent from 2006
Published Monday, July 2, 2007

April Chip Sales Grew by 1.6 Percent from 2006
Published Monday, June 4, 2007

First Quarter Global Chip Sales Grew by 3.2 Percent from 2006
Published Monday, April 30, 2007

February Chip Sales Decline by 6.5 Percent from January
Published Monday, April 2, 2007

January Chip Sales Up by 9.2 Percent from 2006
Published Monday, March 5, 2007

Reference: http://www.sia-online.org/industry-statistics/global-sales-report/

My strategy:
Obviously, the best strategy is to enter the market when the worst news is reported by mainstream media. But the problem is what is the worst news; How do you justify the so-called worst news is the worst news? Instead of predicting unpredictable market trend and answer unanswerable question, I will enter the market gradually based on value investing strategy, that is, only buy undervalued business which will provide attractive cash flow (dividend) for me to rebalance my portfolio in the future, gradually.

Again, no one can predict the future. Maybe the market reaches its bottom already or maybe it just starts to drop further. So, what investors should do is to put all their effort on what they can control, such as buying good business (good return) with good price (cheap price). That's all for today. More fascinating articles and sharing will be updated from time to time in Xaivier Blog. So, you are welcome to subscribe our feed, look at our sitemap or simply visit our Homepage.

Written by: Xaivier Chia

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