When Stock Market Reaches its Bottom - Based on Global semiconductor industry association Sales Reports

Unpredictable Market Trend- Based on FBMKLCI, the bull started from 2003 May to 2004 Mar, then continued adjustment for around 2.5 years. The strong bull continues climbing the mountain from Jun 2006 to the peak at Dec 2007 (around 1.5 years). After that, the bear came immediately started from Jan 2008 to Oct 2008 (around 10 months), then a baby bull was reborned and grow slowly for Nov 2008 to March 2009 (around 5 months). When the baby bull was strong enough, it started to climb the mountain from April 2009 to Jun 2011 (around 2.2 years). So, what will happen next? What can we refer to?

Based on Global semiconductor industry association Sales Reports, when all the negative news were reported (December 2008 to April 2009) only during the FBMKLCI market reached its bottom (Nov 2008 to March 2009). However, this is the hardest period for all investors when all negative and bad news continue bomb-blasting the mind of investors to make bad decision (selling their shares in the bottom of the market).

Highlight of Global semiconductor industry association Sales Reports:
February Chip Sales Declined Year on Year, Month on Month
Published Friday, April 3, 2009
January Chip Sales Declined Year on Year, Month on Month
Published Sunday, March 1, 2009
Global Semiconductor Sales Fell by 2.8 Percent in 2008
Published Monday, February 2, 2009
Semiconductor Sales Slow in November
Published Friday, January 2, 2009
October Semiconductor Sales Decline 2.4 Percent Year-on-Year
Published Monday, December 1, 2008


Global semiconductor industry association Sales Reports:

Global Sales Reports 2011 Global Semiconductor Sales Holding Steady in July 2011 Published Friday, September 2, 2011 Global Semiconductor Sales Grow 3.7% in First Half of 2011 Published Monday, August 1, 2011 Steady and Modest Growth Mark May 2011 Sales for Semiconductor Industry Published Tuesday, July 5, 2011 Semiconductor Year-over-Year Sales Growth Encouraging Published Tuesday, May 31, 2011 Semiconductor Industry Ends 1st Quarter with Strong Global Sales Published Monday, May 2, 2011 SIA Reports February Global Chip Sales of $25.2 Billion Published Monday, April 4, 2011 Semiconductor Industry Reports January Chip Sales Grew; 14.0% Year over Year Published Monday, March 7, 2011 Global Semiconductor Sales Hit Record $298.3 Billion in 2010 Published Monday, January 31, 2011 SIA Reports November Chip Sales Published Monday, January 3, 2011

Global Sales Reports 2010 Global Semiconductor Sales Flat Month-on-Month Published Friday, December 3, 2010 Global Semiconductor Sales Rise 6.1% Quarter-on-Quarter Published Monday, November 1, 2010 Global Chip Sales Increase 1.8 Percent Month-on-Month Published Monday, October 4, 2010 July Semiconductor Sales Up 37 Percent Year-on-Year Published Monday, August 30, 2010 Global Semiconductor Sales Rise 7.1 Percent Quarter-on-Quarter Published Monday, August 2, 2010 SIA Reports Globals Chip Sales In My Rose By 4.5 Percent Month-on-Month Published Tuesday, July 6, 2010 SIA Reports April Chip Sales Grew By 2.2. Percent Month-On-Month Published Tuesday, June 1, 2010 SIA Reports March Chip Sales Grew By 4.6 Percent Month-on-Month Published Monday, May 3, 2010 SIA Reports February Chip Sales Published Monday, April 5, 2010 January Chip Sales Increase 0.3 Percent From December Published Monday, March 1, 2010 Global Chip Sales Decline In 2009 Published Monday, February 1, 2010 SIA Reports November Chip Sales Published Monday, January 4, 2010

Global Sales Reports 2009 SIA Reports October Chips Sales Published Monday, November 30, 2009 Third Quarter Chip Sales Reflect Improving Market Conditions Published Monday, November 2, 2009 Global Chip Sales Increase 5 Percent Month-on-Month Published Friday, October 2, 2009 Global Chip Sales Increase 5.3 Percent Month-on-Month Published Monday, August 31, 2009 Global Semiconductor Sales Rise 17 Percent Quarter-on-Quarter Published Monday, August 3, 2009 May Semiconductor Sales Increase 5.4 percent Month on Month Published Friday, July 3, 2009 April Semiconductor Sales Increase Month on Month Published Monday, June 1, 2009 March Chip Sales Rebound Slightly from February Published Friday, May 1, 2009 February Chip Sales Declined Year on Year, Month on Month Published Friday, April 3, 2009 January Chip Sales Declined Year on Year, Month on Month Published Sunday, March 1, 2009

Global Sales Reports 2008 Global Semiconductor Sales Fell by 2.8 Percent in 2008 Published Monday, February 2, 2009 Semiconductor Sales Slow in November Published Friday, January 2, 2009 October Semiconductor Sales Decline 2.4 Percent Year-on-Year Published Monday, December 1, 2008 September Semiconductor Sales Up 1.6 Percent Year-on Year Published Thursday, October 30, 2008 August Semiconductor Sales Up 5.5 Percent Year-on-Year Published Thursday, October 2, 2008 July Chip Sales up 7.6 Percent Year-on-Year Published Tuesday, September 2, 2008 Worldwide Chip Sales Up 5.4 Percent in First Half of 2008 Published Monday, August 4, 2008 Worldwide Chip Sales Up 7.5 Percent in May Published Monday, June 30, 2008 April Semiconductor Sales Up 6 Percent Year-on-Year Published Monday, June 2, 2008 First-Quarter Semiconductor Sales Show 3.8 Percent Year-on-Year Gain Published Thursday, May 1, 2008 February Semiconductor Sales Show Modest Year-on-Year Gain Published Monday, March 31, 2008 January Semiconductor Sales Essentially Flat with 2007 Published Monday, March 3, 2008

Global Sales Reports 2007 Global Chip Sales Hit $255.6 Billion in 2007 Published Friday, February 1, 2008 November Chip Sales Up 2.3 Percent Year-on-Year Published Sunday, December 30, 2007 October Chip Sales Rose 5 Percent Year-on-Year Published Monday, December 3, 2007 Worldwide Chip Sales Grew by 2.1 Percent in First Half of 2007 Published Friday, August 3, 2007 Worldwide Chip Sales in May Grew by 2.4 Percent from 2006 Published Monday, July 2, 2007 April Chip Sales Grew by 1.6 Percent from 2006 Published Monday, June 4, 2007 First Quarter Global Chip Sales Grew by 3.2 Percent from 2006 Published Monday, April 30, 2007 February Chip Sales Decline by 6.5 Percent from January Published Monday, April 2, 2007 January Chip Sales Up by 9.2 Percent from 2006 Published Monday, March 5, 2007 Reference: http://www.sia-online.org/industry-statistics/global-sales-report/

My strategy:
Obviously, the best strategy is to enter the market when the worst news is reported by mainstream media. But the problem is what is the worst news; How do you justify the so-called worst news is the worst news? Instead of predicting unpredictable market trend and answer unanswerable question, I will enter the market gradually based on value investing strategy, that is, only buy undervalued business which will provide attractive cash flow (dividend) for me to rebalance my portfolio in the future, gradually.

Again, no one can predict the future. Maybe the market reaches its bottom already or maybe it just starts to drop further. So, what investors should do is to put all their effort on what they can control, such as buying good business (good return) with good price (cheap price). That's all for today. More fascinating articles and sharing will be updated from time to time in Xaivier Blog. So, you are welcome to subscribe our feed, look at our sitemap or simply visit our Homepage.

Written by: Xaivier Chia

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