The Ability to Predict the Future Trend of Stock Market

The future trend of stock market is almost unpredictable. Even there is a potential to predict the future trend of stock market, the prediction is only valid for a very short period of time.

It is because in order to predict the future, we need to gather all related information in a very short period of time, and then we need to analyse these substantial information correctly within a very short period of time.

Even you can complete this impossible mission using advanced technology or supernatural power, the prediction result will be expired in a second or milliseconds. This is simply because there are abundant of information will appear in a second. Consequently, some of the information that you have used for the prediction is no longer valid.

In short, it is worthless for us to spend abundant of our previous time (and even money) to learn and to practise this kind of ability - to predict the future. Besides, without this kind of predictive ability, we still can obtain attractive return from stock market by buying a good business with discounted price and then owning the good business in a long run.

That's all for today from Xaivier Blog.

Written by: Xaivier Chia

P/S: The above sharing is solely based on personal insight and information that believed to be reliable. Your valuable feedback are very welcome.

Seed to Plant - Controllable Versus Uncontrollable Factors

When we plant a seed into soil. There are three possible outcomes - Nothing will come out; Expected plant is grown; and unexpected plant is grown. The reasons behind could be mainly due to two factors: our personal technical mistakes (e.g. our ignorance or careless); and environmental issues (e.g. weather). The former can be classified as controllable; while the latter can be categorized as uncontrollable. In this post, we are going to discuss a way to achieve what we want via differentiating these Controllable and Uncontrollable Factors.

 

Free Presentation Tools via Your Smartphone - Wireless Microphone and powerpoint controller - offline

Due to the intensive development of smartphone applications, we can use our smartphone as a multipurpose device. Its application can be from as simple as a torch or a calculator, to a medical diagnosis device. In this post, I am going to share with you a way to use your smartphone as an effective presentation tool, i.e. a wireless microphone and controller, for your business or presentation. These tools do not require an internet connect, but you need to use your laptop as a hotspot for your smartphone.

 

MALAYSIA STEEL WORKS (KL) BHD [S] (Masteel, 5098) – Delay Audited Financial Statement (AFS) - Case Study

Latest Quarterly Summary: Future is going to be better.

From its latest quarterly report (2014 Q4), MALAYSIA STEEL WORKS (KL) BHD [S] (Masteel, 5098)appears to be very optimistic about the future as follows:

Prospects

The Company is expected to increase its bar sales volume by 10% for the first half of the year and upon the commissioning of its new rolling mill during the second quarter, for the second half the year, it is anticipated to sell an additional 100,000 mt of high tensile steel bars.

The margin is expected to improve due to the following factors:

1) the continued decline in scrap prices.

2) the reduction in electricity tariff of 5.8% from March till June 2015.

3) higher levels of economies of scale due to higher volume of production .

4) the suspension of natural gas price revision by the Government.

5) due to the stabilizing international iron ore prices, the prices of Chinese steel imports are expected to bottom out.

The Company is expected to perform well in the following quarters based on prevailing business conditions.

The impending impositions of goods services tax (GST) on the Company’s products are not expected to have any material impact on the sales volume of the Company.

 

Shareholding Analysis: Something opposite

According to 2013 Annual Report, Dato’ Sri Tai Hean Leng, Managing Director and CEO of Malaysia Steel Works (KL) Bhd had around 4million Masteel shares.

However, the Managing Director disposed 4.1 Million shares on 30 Dec 2014 as that stated in Bursa Malaysia at a price of RM0.80 only. In other words, the Managing Director already disposed all the shares that directly held by him and obtained around RM3.28million cash.

http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/3491377

Question: Why the Managing Director who was so confident with Masteel’s future sold 4million shares?

Investment Lesson from Misjudgment on Market Trend in 2014~2015: Review – MALAYSIAN BULK CARRIERS BERHAD (5077)

By forecasting Market Trend, investors can position their portfolio accordingly to embrace the coming profits from the coming Market Trend. Again, everything is always easier said than done. After the sharing of Investment Lessons from Unpredictable Events in 2014~2015: PJ DEVELOPMENT HOLDINGS BERHAD(1945), in this post, I am going to share with you about my misjudgment on Market Trend in 2014~2015 - MALAYSIAN BULK CARRIERS BERHAD (5077).

  

Summary: MALAYSIAN BULK CARRIERS BERHAD (5077) – Bought Average RM1.55, SOLD Average RM1.38, Average Loss ~12%

 

Investment Lessons from Unpredictable Events in 2014~2015: PJ DEVELOPMENT HOLDINGS BERHAD (1945)

As an investor, even though my portfolio of around 15 companies has achieved a positive double digit return in the last five years, I must admit that few of the 15 companies did bring some losses. Since one of ways to enhance our investment skills and knowledge is through revision, I am going to share my experiences from these losses in my portfolio in last 12 months - MALAYSIAN BULK CARRIERS BERHAD (5077) and PJ DEVELOPMENT HOLDINGS BERHAD (1945). Hopefully, this record can remind me those mistakes from time to time.

 

Summary: PJ DEVELOPMENT HOLDINGS BERHAD (1945) – Warrant Bought RM0.98, SOLD RM0.77, Loss ~23%

Revision: Investment Strategy - GST, Ringgit Depreciation, & Oil Price Drop

As an investor in Malaysia, the recent three factors that may affect my investment decision are - GST implementation, Ringgit depreciation, and oil price drop. In this post, I am going to summarize my opinion, particularly, trying to figure out potential opportunity that may once again maintain or even improve my investment return in the next 1~3 years.


Before that, I would like to re-highlight that every decision or view that stated here is based on present available data and information. If an unforeseen circumstance or event happens, all the strategies and decision (especially for those mid- or long- term plan) must be revised timely to reduce (or hopefully avoid) losses.