Stock Market 2021 End Year Review: Top loser: Glove; Top Winner: Defensive; Potential: Steel counters;

Year 2021 was another exciting year for me in stock market investment. Many lessons and experiences are worthy to be recorded. Let's start from lessons with negative return to positive.

1. Top loser: Glove counters
Without be specific, for those who held glove counters at the beginning of year 2021 until the end of the year, the experience is very hard and valuable. From the mixed of opinions about Glove industries until the recent EPS that clearly shows how quickly supply-and-demand can be balanced in a short period of time in this world. As there is a possibility that the supply will more than the demand, the PEs of glove counters are in historical low level. This shows that Mr Market is pessimistic about the near future performance of glove counters as many new players have joined the parties recently. However, if the price (or valuation) is cheap enough while the products are demanded in the future, this may be a better option to buy related shares instead of kick-start own glove business for those who want to kick-start a glove business now. (p/s: as my quota for glove counters is full, I have no plan to in more in current situation/valuation).

As an individual who needs to wear mask, we experienced the price of mask from RM80++ per a box until RM12+- in few months. This is the benefit of economic scale for consumers!! Hopefully with economic scale, glove industries players can continue to produce affordable gloves with good net profits for their contribution to this world.   

2. Potential: Steel counters
Recently, the increase of steel price caused related players who are well positioned have reported attractive profits. Nevertheless, with relatively low PEs in Steel counters, Mr Market may still believe that the increase of steel price are temporary. Due to relatively low PEs and well balance sheet, I still hold my steel counters even though they are around 25% discount from their recent peak prices. Nevertheless, I will keep find sufficient convincing reasons to divest this investment from time to time. 
(p/s: similar investment situation happens to plantation counters)

3. Top Winner: Defensive
Consumer counters were the top winners in my portfolio 2021. They were not only providing steady dividend incomes during this uncertainty period; but also achieved attractive capital gains. As the interest rate is still low now, I still have no plan to realize these unrealized gain from my portfolio as the dividend yield is still much much higher than interest rate now. 

4. Overall of my portfolio
Even though the net unrealized return from my portfolio 2021 was in net -2.34% loses on 31/12/2021, overall it should be positive after including dividend incomes and other realized profits. Hopefully next year my investment performance will be sustained as what I did in last decade. 

Everything is uncertain in this dynamic world. Thus, portfolio investment is suitable for me who aims to have a good sleep while protecting the purchasing power of my hard earned money. All the best to my reader too.


That's all for today. More fascinating articles and sharing will be updated weekly in Xaivier Blog. So, you are welcome to subscribe our feed to receive our weekly updates

Written by: Xaivier Chia

P/S: The above sharing is solely based on personal insight and information that believed to be reliable. Your valuable feedback are very welcome.

A Review of Zebra AI Class - Value of Money, Learning method

This review of Zebra AI Class is based on my observation on my kid (5 years old++), who has joined Zebra AI class for almost 2 months. We have subscribed to three subjects, which are Thinking (or Mathematics), English and (Chinese) Reading.

1. Costing / Fee

First, cost is everything - one course was 3000RMB (before special discounts) for 240 lessons (to be completed in 48 weeks), which is equivalent to only 12.50RMB per lesson. This is relatively cheap for a good quality lesson or tuition. Even though we need to use our space, electricity, and internet, I still consider this online course value worthy for my family as I can avoid unnecessary traffic jam to send my kid to physical learning places, and most importantly, my kid enjoys this remote learning method, which can be done anytime and anywhere.


2. Value of Money

As an international subscriber in Malaysia, if I chose the electronic version, then I would missed many good deals (i.e. hardcopy learning materials and gifts). As shipment service from China to Malaysia is available with affordable fees, hardcopy version is chosen. I am very satisfied with the quality and the content of the learning materials. Particularly, this saves my time from searching learning materials for my kid as a structured learning program is provided by Zebra AI class.

3. Nurture learning habit - Feasible learning time

Before that, I was considering the value of sending my kid to tuition class as there are many hidden costs,  e.g. travel cost to fetch my kids, and the time required for my kid to integrate into the learning environment. The cost mentioned here also includes time. My aim is to nurture pro-active learning habit of my kid. Zebra AI class suits my aim as my kid can explore different learning time until my kid finds the most suitable learning time for herself. Besides, while trying different schedules, this gives my kid a chance to manage her time daily. This is a very important lesson for kid, in my perspective.

3. Remote learning - Benefits

By avoiding unnecessary travel time, my kid has more time to explore other activities at home. One thing that makes me happy everyday is to observe my kid who can independently learn, draw, and  do art works (as follows). Another entertainment for me is to listen to her exciting sharing about what she learnt.

Art work by YJ 2021

4. AI class - Benefits - learning performance

All learning performance appears to be analyzed by AI in Zebra AI class so her designated teachers can quickly figure out the areas to be strengthen. Feedback from her teachers is timely as the feedback is received on the same day. As the feedback is recorded and can be repeated, I can achieve a very good understanding about the learning performance of my kid.

Since we are very satisfied with Zebra AI class, my wife has decided to join their program to promote this class. You can now get a free trial Zebra AI class (including 3 subjects, 15 lessons (5 lessons for each subject) to be completed in 5 days and many other free resources) through her referral link, https://yfdurl.com/opGsY1 as long as the promotion is still valid. No hidden cost. The class will automatically stop renew after the free trial class if you do not subscribe to the full course or other trial  courses. There is no need to unsubscribe from the class. There will be no charges to you in whatsoever method.  If you feel Zebra AI class does not suit your kid but receive follow-up messages or calls from the teacher, you can choose to ignore or tell the teacher frankly. It's free and easy to try this new remote learning method. 

Thanks to my neighbor who introduced Zebra AI class to my family. 

Any question about this free trial class can be emailed to xaivialim@gmail.com. 

That's all for today. More fascinating articles and sharing will be updated weekly in Xaivier Blog. So, you are welcome to subscribe our feed to receive our weekly updates

Written by: Xaivier Chia

P/S: The above sharing is solely based on personal insight and information that believed to be reliable. Your valuable feedback are very welcome.

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In Chinese - Other referral links:
Any question about this free trial class can be emailed to xaivialim@gmail.com.

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Limited Resources are Worthy for Investment and have Good Return?

Q: Limited Resources are Worthy for Investment and have Good Return? 
A: Of course, NO. 

1. Supply and Demand. 

This is about the relationship of Supply and Demand.  This is because people are only willing to "pay money" or "exchange values" for something that they need (i.e. essential goods and services) or want (i.e. unessential goods and services e.g. luxury brand, unproductive items.)

Thus, one way to increase the price of an item (goods or services) is make it appears to have high demand, but low supply. I use "appear" to show the trick that is commonly used in the present market. You shall easily figure few examples around you.

2. Intrinsic value and value investment

In stock market investment, the share (in percentage) is a limited resource. This is because the maximum amount of the shares of a business is 100%. This is impossible to make it more or less - even the number of shares is increased or reduced using various financial tools e.g. share buyback and bonus issue. If you hold 10% of the business, by participating all kinds of financial activities e.g. right issues, bonus issues, you will still hold 10% of the business. 

Once you understand that the supply of the shares of a business is limited, then you will understand why the major shareholders of a good business are unlikely to exchange their shares for money. This is because the shares are limited while money is unlimited. This is the main reason why our money are relatively less valuable compared to the shares of a good business. For a bad business, the story will be opposite - of course.

3. Trick is here - the values of all assets are dynamic - including business.

If you now suddenly have a strong determination to ALL-IN your money to a certain asset, then most likely you are gambling!!. Everything is dynamic (keep changing), especially in business. If you are lucky to buy a business in low price, then the probability for you to earn money is high as the market price is lower than its intrinsic values. This is the idea of value investment. We aim to increase the probability instead of to get a chance that has 100% profit. The latter must be a SCAM if someone is trying to share an "opportunity" that will guarantee an attractive profit. Come on - if got such "opportunity", where are those bankers, private investors, hedge fund managers, etc. The 100% is about their commission or service fee by introducing this "opportunity" to you!!. Be aware!!!.

That's all for today. More fascinating articles and sharing will be updated weekly in Xaivier Blog. So, you are welcome to subscribe our feed to receive our updates

Written by: Xaivier Chia

P/S: The above sharing is solely based on personal insight and information that believed to be reliable. Your valuable feedback are very welcome.

Stock Investment: Focus on the Journey instead of Achievement - The Benefits of Self Investment

For stock market investment, the journey shall be what you experience from the beginning to the end of your investment. I have invested in stock market for more than 10 years, meaning that my journey has more than 10 years. When is the end of my investment journey, I believe it should be when I was unable to invest by myself.

There are many benefits that I get throughout the journey of investment:

(a) To gain the knowledge about how interested companies manage their business.

This is very difficult to earn *big* money. Due to competition, most of companies can only maintain a 5-15 net profit margin.  Thus, any "special" investment due to your "special luck" is probably a scam.

(b) To know about what are the consequences to the business when an event happens e.g. Covid-19. 

This is very important for me to improve my common senses and understanding about this world e.g. the effects of currency, interest rate, commonity, government policy etc. 

(c) To digest the information that published directly from listed companies without polished by third parties. 

No specific comment that I would like to share as it is my personal preference to figure out the fact by myself. Of course, I do read those third parties' published works as the content is much interesting.

In short, the journey of investment improves my confidence in making a decision. Even a decision is incorrect, I do learn something from the decision. 

That's all for today. More fascinating articles and sharing will be updated weekly in Xaivier Blog. So, you are welcome to subscribe our feed to receive our weekly updates

Written by: Xaivier Chia

P/S: The above sharing is solely based on personal insight and information that believed to be reliable. Your valuable feedback are very welcome.

My Rabbits - Rest in Peace

My Rabbits - Rest in Peace

This morning, 2021 March 21, 6.30am, as usual, I opened the curtain but I found that there were 4-5 dogs were in my car porch while the main gate was opened. Immediately, I searched for my rabbits while opening the door and made noises to repel those uninvited "guests". When I came out from the house, in the car porch, no more those "strangers" but two my bunnies were just laying on the floor. I called their names - Ah Black, Ah Black... She had no response. Ah Bai, Ah Bai... He also had no response. No any heartbeat signals from their body. Their cage appeared to be opened rudely by those unwelcome "strangers". Maybe those strangers were just trying to play with them, maybe. Everywhere was messy. After few minutes observation on the scene, they were still no response. I decided to have their last sleeping place in their favorite garden with their favorite vegetables and playground. Positioning their favorite loving position in the place... 

Now, I decide no more earphone during my rest time. In the night, I appeared to have hear some noises. Since there are plenty of this kind of noises around the living places, and I was quite tired and had no mood to ignite my curiosity... No turning back when time was passed. Just like lots of things that we can avoid by giving them few seconds e.g. ensuring their living place was safe as usual. What I can do is to ensure such controllable things will be prevented as many as I can.

Ah Bai, Ah Black - Rest in Peace. 

Your careless Daddy to continue his life with passion as what you hope so.

Written by: Xaivier Chia

My Stock Market Investment Checklist 2021: Three Aspects to be Analyzed. Risk, Prospect, and Price.

1. Risk of bankruptcy Assessment.

Basically I will ignore those companies that have very unhealthy and unsustainable financial statement -  

   (a) Balance sheet - If the receivable amount is as high as the borrowing amount, and 

   (b) the receivable amount is more than 1.5 quarter revenue, and

   (c) Negative cash flow (in cash flow statement) for several quarters.
 

then the risk of bankruptcy is very high. 

2. Future prospect: Hopeful and hopeless business.

Hopeless business are those revenue is declined due to the reduction of the demands due to:

   (a) New products that is going to replace it (e.g. pendrive / harddisk vs CD/DVD; lighten vs match), 

or

   (b) The change of habits/requirements to fulfill the needs (i.e. online shopping vs offline shopping)

   

Hopeful business are those products are demanded due to the change of habits/demands.

   (a) Hygiene awareness causes more demands on hygiene related products e.g. gloves, masks, PPE.

   (b) Work from Home - new demands on home-based working related furniture.  

3. Pricing: Over-valued or Under-valued.  

Normally it depends on your desired ROI (return of investment), and whether you can grab the opportunity when Mr Market over-reacts with the so-called "news". 

For me, as long as 

    (a) dividend return is predictable and more than fixed deposit, or

    (b) the potential capital gain is more than 20-50% (e.g. PE is only 5). 

Anyway, investment depends on intuitive and previous experiences as well. Thus, these checklist or guidance is a just tool for me to make a more consistent and holistic decision to increase the rate of success. 

That's all for today. More fascinating articles and sharing will be updated in Xaivier Blog. So, you are welcome to subscribe our feed to receive our weekly updates

Written by: Xaivier Chia

P/S: The above sharing is solely based on personal insight and information that believed to be reliable. Your valuable feedback are very welcome.