09 April 2013

HeveaBoard Berhad (Hevea, 5095) : Buy, Hold or Sell?

After holding Hevea more than one year and sharing three parts my homework with my visitors last year (that entitled Introduction and Background StudyThe Potential of China Market and its Operation Segments, and 2011 Performance Review) in my humble personal blog, my patience gets paid, finally. Maybe it is due to the so-called Cold Eyes' effect since Cold Eyes senior mentioned Hevea on last Friday. No matter what the reason is, the most important question I need to answer now is what is the target price that should I sell my Hevea shares in open market.
It is really a crucial question that bother me, especially, when my invested company is appreciated. So far, I am still cannot figure out the best way to optimise all the profit. Nonetheless, after I figure the difference between Positive and Negative Value Investing Strategy and the Seven Habits of Highly Unsuccessful Investors in Stock Market, I have a very simple idea, that are, (1) bear in mind which value investing strategy that I applied now, and (2) if I can avoid those 7 bad habits, then I should achieve the so-called optimal profit.

Personal Insight

I really like simple thing instead of simpler. I believe to be sustainable in the long term, the way we use must be simple and crystal clear, with rational assumptions.
Now, let's back to the question of what price should I sell Hevea now? Very straightforward, when its market price higher than its intrinsic value.
Personally, I cannot share my target price with my visitors. Simply because it is very unreliable. My target price is normally revised quarterly after I re-evaluate them.
Moreover, the decision I make is also based on my current portfolio condition. Honestly, I already sold some of my Hevea shares. It is a bad decision based on today market price. But it was a good decision for my portfolio. I hope you will understand it.

My Strategy

Since my current portfolio does not allow me to realise my profit from Hevea, I will hold it until either my portfolio condition allows or the valuation of Hevea is too high in the future.
After considering the current profitability of Hevea, the impact of minimum wage, and the number of WB that may dilute its EPS, if the market price of Hevea over RM1.15 before next quarter report is announced, I tend to clear all my Hevea from my portfolio. OR, if my portfolio condition allows me to clear Hevea from it.
Personally, I believe that we cannot categorise a decision is right or wrong, but suitable or inappropriate. In short, as long as a decision is suitable for oneself, and it should be a right decision for the one. That's all for today. More fascinating articles and sharing will be updated from time to time in Xaivier Blog. So, you are welcome to subscribe our feed, look at our sitemap or simply visit our Homepage for latest sharing.

Written by: Xaivier Chia

P/S: The above sharing is solely based on personal insight and information that believed to be reliable. Your valuable feedback are very welcome.


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